A valley forecast tells you if you’ll need a coat in Keswick. A mountain forecast tells you whether you can safely stand up on a ridge. Before any fell day, read at least one mountain forecast, and read it the day before and on the morning itself. This is the same advice the National Park Authority gives.
Your three sources
| Source | What it is | Good for |
|---|---|---|
| MWIS (Mountain Weather Information Service) | Forecasts for 10 UK upland areas, including one covering the whole Lake District National Park. Written by professional meteorologists. | A readable, warning-led summary with clear icons for wind, visibility and cold. |
| Met Office mountain forecast | A forecast for the Lake District mountain area with a table at different heights, plus a text forecast. | Wind speed and gusts, “feels like” temperature and the freezing level at height. |
| Lake District Weatherline | A daily winter report from the top of Helvellyn, recorded by the National Park’s Fell Top Assessors. | Real winter conditions on the ground, December to April. |
MWIS: warnings first
MWIS says it writes forecasts “largely in the form of warnings”, so when there is little text, the conditions are fairly benign. Its Lake District page uses icons with plain definitions. For example:
- Windy, walking impeded: blustery enough to give buffeting on higher terrain or to affect balance on exposed ridges, 25 to 40 mph.
- Poor visibility: fog shrouding the hills, which makes navigation challenging. “Map and compass essential.”
- Cold: air temperature below 0°C all day on higher mountains, with a significant chill factor in strong winds.
MWIS forecasts are probability forecasts. It says it uses certain words to mean certain chances (for example “unlikely” is about 30%, “toss-up” is 50% and “likely” is 70%), and it says so when its confidence is low. Read those words literally.
Don’t rely on a forecast you saw yesterday, or on a snapshot copied onto another website. Open today’s MWIS Lake District forecast the day before you walk, and again on the morning.
Met Office: heights, gusts and freezing level
The Met Office’s mountain forecast guide explains the layout. The key points:
- When it’s issued: forecasts come out in the afternoon before 6pm every day, cover the evening and the next two days in full, then a brief outlook for three more. They’re updated in the early hours before 6am.
- Hazards: mountain weather hazards apply at or above 300 m, so a hill day can have hazards even when there are no standard weather warnings.
- The table: wind speed, direction and gust, temperature and “feels like” temperature, at different altitudes from valley to peak.
- Freezing level: shown at the bottom of the table, this is the height above which snow is expected to settle or the ground is expected to be frozen.
- The text forecast: written by a meteorologist, covering weather, cloud and visibility, plus anything the tables don’t capture.
- Summit forecasts: the location map lets you open a seven-day forecast for specific summits.
Weatherline: winter on Helvellyn
The National Park’s Weatherline is a daily conditions report on Helvellyn, recorded by the Fell Top Assessors from December to April. It includes wind speed, temperature, wind chill, photos and a written summary. The Weatherline page, checked in November 2026, says the assessors will be back from December 2026 until spring 2027. In summer there is no Weatherline report, so use the Met Office and MWIS forecasts.
The National Park is clear that walking in winter can be a serious undertaking, and that alpine conditions can develop on the higher fells. If snow or ice is likely, you need winter skills and the right kit (including, on harder ground, an ice axe and crampons, and the training to use them). If you haven’t got those, choose a low-level walk instead.
A five-step routine
- The day before: read the MWIS Lake District forecast and the Met Office mountain forecast for the area you’re walking. Choose your walk (and a lower fallback) with them in mind.
- Look at the wind and the freezing level first. Wind is what turns an easy walk into a hard one on a ridge.
- Check visibility. If it will be cloudy on the tops, are you confident with a map and compass? Navigating in cloud is much harder than on a clear day. Don’t rely on a phone alone: there may be no signal, and batteries fail in the cold.
- On the morning: read both again. Forecasts are updated overnight.
- On the hill: conditions can change dramatically even in a short space of time. The National Park says “all temperature extremes can be hazardous, always be prepared to turn back”.
Other weather notes from the National Park
- High rainfall can make rivers impassable, and rocks slippery underfoot. After even moderate rain, rivers can be dangerous.
- On its weather page, the National Park says the valleys of the Lake District receive around 200 days of rain and 20 days of snow a year, and that the wettest months run from October to January.
- Plan to be off the fell before nightfall. Daylight is short in winter. For today’s times, use a sunrise and sunset table such as timeanddate’s figures for Keswick (times on the fells can differ a little from the town, and twilight is not the same as being able to walk easily without a torch).
Quick links
- MWIS Lake District forecast
- Met Office mountain forecast guide
- Weatherline and the National Park’s weather page
- For first fells, see the easiest Wainwrights, and for a full Wainwright plan, see How to plan the 214 Wainwrights.
Sources
Checked on 14 November 2026. Official pages change: confirm anything time-sensitive (buses, car parks, closures) before you travel.
- Lake District forecast (Mountain Weather Information Service (MWIS))
- How we forecast (Mountain Weather Information Service (MWIS))
- Mountain forecast guide (Met Office)
- Lake District weather (Lake District National Park Authority)
- Weatherline (Helvellyn winter conditions) (Lake District National Park Authority)
- Walking safety (Lake District National Park Authority)
- Sunrise and sunset times in Keswick (timeanddate.com)
- A beginner's guide to Wainwright bagging (British Mountaineering Council)
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